Forecasting of Corn Oil Price in Turkey
Yazarlar (2)
Prof. Dr. Rüştü YAYAR
Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Hayriye Sibel GÜLSE BAL
Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü | Özgün Makale |
| Makale Alt Türü | SCOPUS dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale |
| Dergi Adı | Journal of Applied Sciences Research |
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | SCOPUS, DOAJ |
| Makale Dili | İngilizce |
| Basım Tarihi | 01-2007 |
| Sayı | 8 |
| Sayfalar | 706 / |
| Özet |
| Oil seeds and vegetal oils always have been one of important sector in Turkey. For Turkey, forecasting vegetal oil price is necessary and useful. Because, price forecast of vegetal oils can provide important signal to farmers, processors, wholesalers, consumers and policy markers. Vegetal oil and oil seeds production of Turkey can not meet the demand. To meet this deficit, various raw vegetal oil and oilseeds have been imported. Corn oil is second most vegetal oil in vegetal oil consume of Turkey. Moreover the important share belongs to corn oil in total vegetal oil supply and total raw vegetal oil import of Turkey. This paper provides a method to predict corn oil price base on ARIMA (Autoregressive Moving Average Processes) methodology. ARIMA models have been applied to forecast commodity price. These models are based on time series analysis and provide reliable and accurate forecasts. This approach is suitable for short term price forecasting, ie a weeks, a month, a quarter, a year. In this study monthly corn oil price are used from January 1994 to December 2005. Monthly corn oil price of 2006-2007 year are forecasted. |
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