Trends and amount changes of temperature and precipitation under future projections in high–low groups and intra-period for the Eastern Black Sea, the Wettest Basin in Türkiye
Yazarlar (4)
Doç. Dr. Sinan NACAR
Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Gümüşhane Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Balıkesir Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü |
Özgün Makale
|
| Makale Alt Türü | SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale |
| Dergi Adı | Natural Hazards |
| Dergi ISSN | 0921-030X Wos Dergi Scopus Dergi |
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | SCI-Expanded |
| Dergi Grubu | Q1 |
| Makale Dili | Türkçe |
| Basım Tarihi | 04-2024 |
| Cilt No | 120 |
| Sayı | 11 |
| Sayfalar | 9833 / 9866 |
| DOI Numarası | 10.1007/s11069-024-06588-z |
| Makale Linki | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06588-z |
| Özet |
| This study investigates the possible effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation variables in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye’s wettest and flood-prone region. The outputs of three GCMs under historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to regional scale using the multivariate adaptive regression splines method. The future monthly temperature and precipitation for 12 stations in the basin were projected for three periods: the 2030s (2021–2050), 2060s (2051–2080), and 2090s (2081–2100). In addition to relative changes, high and low groups and intra-period trends were analyzed for the first time using innovative methods. For the pessimistic scenario, an increase of 3.5 °C in the interior and 3.0 °C in the coastal areas of the basin is projected. For the optimistic scenario, these values are expected to be 2.5 and 2.0 °C, respectively. A decrease in precipitation is projected for the … |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| Eastern Black Sea Basin | Climate change | Innovative trend analysis | Multivariate adaptive regression splines | Statistical downscaling |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| WoS | 9 |
| Google Scholar | 11 |