An Analysis of Financial Crises by Early Warning Systems Approach THe Case of Transition Economies and Emerging Markets 1994 2006 Period Panel Logit Model
Yazarlar (2)
Prof. Dr. Salih BARIŞIK Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Arzu Tay
Istanbul Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Istanbul Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü | Özgün Makale (Uluslararası alan indekslerindeki dergilerde yayınlanan tam makale) | ||
| Dergi Adı | International Journal of Economic Perspectives | ||
| Dergi ISSN | 1307-1637 | ||
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | ECONLIT | ||
| Makale Dili | İngilizce | Basım Tarihi | 01-2010 |
| Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa | 4 / 2 / 403–426 | DOI | – |
| Makale Linki | www.econ-society.org | ||
| Özet |
| We study the extent to which financial crisis in transition economies and emerging markets are predictable using logit models based on macroeconomic and financial data set. To evaluate our model, the countries were formed two categories. Because Turkey is favor of transition economies in terms of similar macroeconomic circumstances, financial liberalization and crisis dates. Additionally Turkey is favor of emerging market economies in terms of the extent of economic potential. It was found that real exchange rate, percentage change in foreign exchange reserves, inflation, current deficit and direct foreign capital amounts are leading indicators for financial crisis in transition economies. However, it was found that credit growth, real exchange rate, percentage change in foreign exchange reserves, are leading indicators for financial crisis in emerging markets. The results we obtained confirm the hypothesis that currency crisis in Transition economies are first-generation, Asian economies are third-generation crisis models. |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| Early warning systems | Emerging markets | Financial crisis | Logit model | Transition economies |
