The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Bilateral Trade between Turkey and European Union Countries: Asymmetric Analysis with Markov Regime Switching Models
Yazarlar (3)
Doç. Dr. Selim GÜNGÖR
Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü | Özgün Makale |
| Makale Alt Türü | SCOPUS dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale |
| Dergi Adı | Journal Global Policy and Governance |
| Dergi ISSN | 2194-7740 Scopus Dergi |
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | Scopus |
| Makale Dili | İngilizce |
| Basım Tarihi | 12-2022 |
| Cilt No | 11 |
| Sayı | 2 |
| Sayfalar | 3 / 34 |
| DOI Numarası | 10.14666/2194-7759-11-2-001 |
| Makale Linki | https://transitionacademiapress.org/jgpg/article/view/531 |
| Özet |
| This study aims to reveal the asymmetric effect of real exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade between Turkey and 8 European Union member countries under different economic cycles. Accordingly, monthly data from January 2005 to December 2021 were analyzed with Markov regime switching models. The findings show that an increase in real exchange rate volatility reduces bilateral trade between Turkey, Belgium, and Germany during periods of economic expansion, while bilateral trade between Turkey and Poland decreases during periods of economic contraction. In addition, while it was detected that an increase in real exchange rate volatility decreased the bilateral trade between Turkey and Italy, and Romania in both expansion and contraction periods of the economy, no significant finding was obtained regarding the effect on bilateral trade between Turkey and France, the Netherlands and Spain. The findings prove that the Marshall-Lerner condition and J-curve effect are not valid in trade with the relevant EU countries. |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| Bilateral Trade | European Union Countries | Kruse Nonlinear Unit Root Test | Markov Regime Switching Models | Real Exchange Rate Volatility |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| SCOPUS | 2 |
| Google Scholar | 7 |