Spatial and temporal patterns of drought under different scenarios for Türkiye in the 21st century
Yazarlar (4)
Doç. Dr. Sinan NACAR
Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Türkiye
Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü | Özgün Makale |
| Makale Alt Türü | SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale |
| Dergi Adı | PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH |
| Dergi ISSN | 1474-7065 Wos Dergi Scopus Dergi |
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | SCI-Expanded |
| Dergi Grubu | Q1 |
| Makale Dili | Türkçe |
| Basım Tarihi | 01-2025 |
| Cilt No | 140 |
| Sayfalar | 20 / 0 |
| DOI Numarası | 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104028 |
| Özet |
| This study investigates the impact of climate change on drought conditions in Türkiye for two distinct future periods: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). High-resolution regional climate projections from 19 GCM-RCM combinations within the EURO-CORDEX framework were evaluated. Based on performance analysis against ERA5-Land data, the four best-performing models were selected for multi-model ensemble averaging (MMEA). Drought conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. Three trend analysis methods, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen’s Slope, were applied to examine spatiotemporal drought patterns. SPI-based analyses show a significant increase in short- and medium-term variability (SPI-3 and SPI-6) and long … |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| CMIP5 | CORDEX | Climate change | Drought | Innovative trends analysis | SPI | T & uuml;rkiye |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| WoS | 3 |
| Google Scholar | 4 |